Derry's Condo Headshot

Derry's Condo Headshot

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Housing Starts Decrease, Mortgage Applications are Down, Builder Confidence Remains High

Based on this information, what can we conclude in terms of the overall health of the economy particularly as it relates to real estate?

This sounds like a slow down on growth. I need to qualify this because this scares an awful lot of people. We've had growth floating around 6-7% year over year. The expectation moving forward is that this growth will slow down and taper off to somewhere closer to 3-4%. Hopefully we will have some continued growth because of wage growth. However, there are many people who feel that they got in somewhere in the last 10 years and now they can't imagine moving into something else with a new property tax base.

On the flip side, we still have a number of millennials who are settling down and suburbanizing. Many are discouraged over the significant market growth that we've had in the last decade, but many still want that white picket fence lifestyle. This means that the entry level purchases are still seeing stability and aggressive growth. Locally this is East Side Costa Mesa, College Park, Mesa del Mar and even Mesa Verde.

In some cases, buyers are being trapped out of the exclusive community of those who own real estate and those that do not. The other factor in this equation is that it's hard to think that you've worked to squirrel away all of your acorns to buy something that seems like it needs to be scraped and re-built, i.e. a fixer upper. We all know that it's a good way to build equity. Watch anything on HGTV to find out more.

Enter in builders. They are building fewer homes, but they are still confident about their success. We have slowed down and so have the builders. I'm sure we will find that more and more first time home buyers will begin to look at these properties in order to fill a void that consists of increasing prices for existing home sales and a lack of entry level homes available for purchase.

So what's the takeaway?
1. First time home buyers ought to be looking at fixer uppers in entry level home neighborhoods. If they can't handle the work that comes with that, they ought to consider new construction out of builders.
2. To sellers, be cognizant that there are buyers out there, but for as much as you want a spectacular profit, buyers are having to swallow a large pill of eating your profits in conjunction with knowing that the expected future growth has slowed down. It's maybe a weird request, but try to be a little empathetic and you will close the gap on the margins between buyers and sellers and sell faster than your neighbor down the street.

For more data and articles on real estate, check out the following links:
Housing Starts   Mortgage Application Rates     Builder Confidence

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