Derry's Condo Headshot

Derry's Condo Headshot

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Market Update for Newport Beach Residential Income

Active
Volume: 17 (0)
Low: $1,695,000 (0)
High: $12,500,000 (0)
Average: $3,500,058.82 (-2.6%)
Median: $2,600,000 (-9.6%)

Under Contract
Volume: 7 (0)
Low: $1,699,000 (0)
High: $2,950,000 (0)
Average: $2,279,571.29 (0)
Median: $2,288,000 (0)

Pending
Volume: 0 (0)
Low: 0 (0)
High: 0 (0)
Average: 0 (0)
Median: 0 (0)

Sold (over the last 30 days)
Volume: 2 (0)
Low: $1,600,000 (0)
High: $2,000,000 (0)
Average: $1,800,000 (0)
Median: $1,800,000 (0)
Average % Difference between List Price and Purchase Price: -8.3% (0)


I don't think I've ever seen such little change over the course of a week since I've started tracking this data. Nonetheless, I'm not entirely surprised. There are at least 2 properties that moved into escrow over a month ago and I suspect that those properties ought to be moving into the pending position. However, like I said last week, if nothing closes in the next couple of weeks, we will have gone 30 days without any income properties selling.


We may be seeing some examples of everyone being choosier and reluctant. I would normally reference the gap between the list price and sales price as evidence of that. However, the number for these 2 properties seems high. I think if we get more sales and that the gap decreases, I would estimate that it would be because sellers are willing to sell, but at their price and buyers are willing to buy, but at their price.


As we float near pre-recession high prices (not adjusted for inflation, please refer to Bill McBride's Calculated Risk Blog for more information), I suspect that we're seeing some behavioral changes. In the last couple years it was "I need to get in before housing goes back up to pre-recession highs". There was a sense of urgency. Now, we're floating around those numbers in the less than $3 million dollar marker and people appear to not want to make the same mistake they made 10 years ago. The residential income market is probably the best example of that. People aren't willing to "feed" their properties every month with the hopes that it will appreciate enough in order for them to sell it and profit. Even so, there are costs in selling and I think people are beginning to incorporate that into their numbers of managing real estate financials. It's creating quite the perfect storm in conjunction with coming into the end of the year as well as the election.

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